Rolex collectors: Time to trim the herd?

Discussion in 'Wrist Watches' started by Jeff Hess, Aug 25, 2019.

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  1. Jeff Hess

    Jeff Hess Moderator
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    Sep 3, 2000
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    Hong Kong show disaster in the waiting: We cannot discuss specififc pricing but here is some food for thought for Rolex and vintage patek collectors. The "market" is soft now and has been for several months. The coming Hong Kong show will, imho, make prices go down. Bad for hoarders, bad for dealers but good for those who wish to truly collect. Hong Kong is a vibrant city. The last time they had demonstrations in the street was in 1989. Jeff Harris & I had partnered a 200k watch and we went anyway and no one showed up and we each, as relative newbies had to sell it at a loss. (Same watch recently sold for 2 million....dang it..) Prices dipped for months. So many people crowding the streets. And in 2001 Katrina Hess & I packed up tons of watches and went to Hong Kong show even thous 911 had just happened. All of us dealers and collectors sat around playing cards and bullshippng with each other. Prices plummeted for months. This time is going to be worse. A combination of a mild downturn in watch and collectable prices (normal) PLUS volatile currency market, PLUS unrest in Hong Kong will make this show a disaster. IMO. I guarantee it. (I hope I am wrong) Get ready for major price adjustments after the show. Hundreds of dealers either will not be attending or will come back with most of their goods after being "loaded for bear" and not being able to sell much. The price correction in Vintage Rolex is long overdue and has been gradually happening the past 6 months anyway. Hold your fire guys. Be careful. Other opinions may vary, but from my viewpoint this is going to be a disaster. Feel like gambling the airfare and hotel expenses? Go for it. But my advice after doing hong kong auctions and fairs for 30 years is to keep your powder dry and hunker down. Get rid of your "Dogs" asap. Dump them. Keep the good stuff in your collection if you want as they will come back sooner but get ready. A correction of major proportions is looming. Remember: Everyone looks like a genius in an up market. Any moron can make money or build a collection in an up market. Don't be stubborn. As Warren Buffet said: "Buy on the dips".
     
    viclip likes this.
  2. musicguy

    musicguy Moderator
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    Jan 12, 2017
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    Very interesting Jeff


    Rob
     
  3. John Cote

    John Cote Director
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    Aug 26, 2000
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    As you say Jeff, a down market is an opportunity...any market is an opportunity. You just have to be on the right side of the market. There is nothing better than having cash in a down market and there is nothing worse than having watches that you bought at the peak wen the market is going down.
     

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