Falling Pocket watch prices

[musicguy]

I know that I haven't been collecting anywhere near as long as
many of you here, but in the time I've been collecting I've seen the
prices seem to drop myself. Even within the past 18 months.

This could be because I am more knowledgeable now, and
I can find watches I want for low prices, but I think that's
only a small part of the equation.

I can't speak for sales at the NAWCC Mart's and how(or if) prices have held up or
decreased there, but there is a big(tremendous) divide between
prices of current listed watches, vs. actual sold listings(using Ebay).

When I see the prices that some people ask for, and then
as I said you search for completed listings of similar watches
they are no where near each other.

It seems that if it's a 16s RR watch (with a well known company name) it will sell
fairly easily, but look at other sizes and their sales seem to be dramatically less.

Pure Gold watch cases(with watches or not) always seem to sell at a premium, hopefully there not all scrapped.

I think(as I have said in other posts) it's a buyers market and not an investors market
because other than precious metal prices, watch prices are decreasing.

I do believe that in my lifetime there will always be a market for pocket watches
and sometime there might be a resurgence of interest(or not), For me (a person who doesn't
sell watches) it's nice to get watches that people only dreamed of owning in the 1800's-1900's
for the same price they paid back then. And, less than the inflation adjusted dollars.


Rob

 

[rolandantrobus]

Yes, prices particularly in the US seem to be dropping, don't know why. Off on another tangent why do people ask stupid prices on the 'bay in fixed price sales? For example £3000 for a run of the mill seven jewel Waltham. What's the point, they will never sell it at that price. I know, we cannot discuss values but what I want to know is why do they do it?

 

[darrahg]

Sellers offering a fixed price with a 'make an offer' button are really asking interested parties to place an offer and dicker for a best price. The final price is not listed publicly. Those having high fixed prices with no 'make an offer' button are ignorant of value or are just reaching for the stars. Pass them by. Reasonable 'buy it now' prices with no 'make an offer' button are up to the buyer to decide whether it is a reasonable or not. Good quality pieces have retained value but some folks are just marking up prices on speculation or they know something I don't.

 

[Ethan Lipsig]

I am not sure that watch prices are generally declining. As empiric evidence, I can point to the prices at which I have sold pocket watches this year (I annually review my collection and cull out lesser examples or duplicates). I have sold 16 watches this year, mainly on eBay. I won't say what these watches were to avoid this Board's hyper-aversion to value discussions. 12 of the 16 sold for more than what I'd paid (all but ##2,3,10,and 11 in the list below). Only 5 of the 16 had solid gold cases.

1. 2005 acq. for $271, sold for $675
2. 2005 acq. for $375, sold for $210
3. 2005 acq. for $395, sold for $300
4. 2006 acq. for $316, sold for $325
5. 2006 acq. for $450, sold for $600
6. 2007 acq. for $420, sold for $675
7. 2009 acq. for $96, sold for $200
8. 2010 acq. for $250, sold for $315
9. 2010 acq. for $135, sold for $375
10. 2011 acq. for $601, sold for $500
11. 2013 acq. for $385, sold for $300
12. 2011 acq. for $250, sold for $275
13. 2015 acq. for $150, sold for $200
14. 2016 acq. for $162, sold for $200
15. 2007 acq. for $455, sold for $670
16. 2007 acq. for $430, sold for $825

Before anyone congratulates me on my investment acumen, I should add that I lost money on almost all of these watches if you increase my purchase prices by shipping and servicing costs, and reduce my sales prices by selling expenses.

Even though my sales results suggest that prices for watches that I collect (mainly smaller gentlemen's watches and purse watches) are not in general decline, I have seen some fairly astounding declines. For example, I bought a highly collectible Waltham in 2016 for $6,875. That watch had sold at a 2010 auction for $14,340.

As for why eBay buy-it-now prices, or some dealers' asking prices, are ridiculously high, I speculate that (a) the sellers are willing to wait a long time for a sale; (b) they are afraid of quoting a sale price below the maximum price at which the item might sell; (c) they hope to land a "sucker", (d) they expect buyers to demand a discount and they view their asking price as the starting point for downward negotiations, or (e) some combination of these factors. When I sold the items listed above on eBay, factor (d) influenced my buy-it-now prices. I set them at levels that I thought were reasonable, but high enough to allow me to achieve acceptable results while agreeing to modestly discounted offers.

 

[musicguy]

Thanks for all of the good information. RE gold or other precious metal cases, and how that effected final value.
(5, and 16 were big profit margins)

It does seem that if you take out the ebay fees, the paypal fees
and the mailing costs, plus the big watch service and repair fees, prices have been relatively flat(to down)
not taking into account any inflation over the past 15 years(that brings down the value of the dollar).

I would assume most if not all the watches you sold were in better condition
than when you got them.




Rob

 

[Dave Coatsworth]

As a dealer, I think I can confirm some weakness this year in certain segments. The most notable segment is the midrange RR watches. Your run of the mill 992 or Bunn Special. Prime examples and rare variants are holding up OK and the low end isn't changing much. But, a watch that I would have gotten $400 for last year, I'm probably discounting down to $300 now to get it to move. I think it's just a case of supply and demand continuing to work its way out. Prices on these RR watches went crazy before the recession. Took a massive correction during the recession and I think now are correcting a bit more. There's just a lot of them out there.

 

[Tom McIntyre]

Ethan, the NAWCC rules and Message Board rules allow you to post any facts of which you are aware. The restriction is on prices that have not been achieved, or if achieved, cannot be verified.

In my experience, I collected railroad watches for a while starting in the 1970's and then about a decade later I tried to do some commercial buying and selling. I stopped because I am a notoriously inept sales person and all my friends urged me to get out of the business. During that period of about 20 years, the railroad watch prices were incredibly steady with less than 5% inflation in value. Well below any other "investment" even though many people thought they were investing in railroad watches. In the mid 1990's the prices jumped up to about double what they had been for the previous 20 years and in some instances rose significantly above that as various Bunn Specials were determined to be "exceedingly rare" and therefore valuable. For the last 5 years, I think the prices have been slowly going down to the levels they had after the bump in the 90's.

From the intrinsics, Ethan's 10 and 12 size watches should be worth much more than they actually sell for. Bill Meggers noticed that back in the 1960's when he was heavily involved in the railroad watches and tracked them closely for about 15 years, expecting that eventually the market would wake up. I remember his talk on Small Wonders at the precursor to the River Cities Regional where he showed many pictures of them and remarked that he had grown discouraged that they would ever be recognized.

 

[Tom Huber]

I've been collecting now for 62 years, and I have seen a tremendous drop in pocket watch prices in the last 5 years.. One of the prior posters said "they are dropping and I don't know why". I believe it has to do with the law of supply and demand. I don't buy on ebay--my experience is with NAWCC nationals and regionals. It appears that many vendor are trying to hold on to prices from 10 years ago. these are the vendors that I hear crying and moaning that no one is buying. To sell anything, there must be willing customers out there. The pool of willing customers, who are interested in mechanical pocket watches, is drying up fast. All one must do is to look around an NAWCC mart room and look at the age range. Ninety percent are over 60 years of age. There are very few younger collectors. Those of us who are older collectors have what we want, unless an item is really special.

In general, millennials have no interest in mechanical pockets watches. There is some interest in high end wrist watches. Millennials also have little interest in antiques. Prices for antiques are dropping drastically.

If there is no one out there to buy your product, the price will drop.

One used to hear a lot about pocket watches as an investment. I don't think anyone will expect to retire well on what he/she has invested in pocket watches.

Tom

 

[Robert Sweet]

According to my 1st edition (1981) copy of the "Complete Guide to American Pocket Watches", Hamilton 16 size pocket watches have about doubled in prices in the past 36 years. This may not be true for other sizes, makes and grades.

Robert

 

[musicguy]

doubled in prices in the past 36 years

Interesting
That comes out to be 2% per year in increased value.
Average annual inflation for past 36 yrs is about 2.5%(per year)
So it's a net loss




Rob

 

[Douglas Romero]

Can't say it much better than previous replies. Tom and Tom said it well.

I have collected, bought and sold for about 35 plus years. Now paired down considerably.

Regardless of the economy, watch and clock collecting is a hobby, and if you turn out monetarily ahead you are fortunate. It was more fun before the price guides were published, and it seemed more of a mystery.

Also it is the chase. Once you got what you were after, it may lose some of the appeal why you bought it, but you may still look for another.

There are many, many extremely nice examples that the collective we are hanging onto and enjoy. Then wonder if any children would want any of it (likely no). Gonna be interesting cause there should be a flood of really nice examples to hit the market in the next few years, and a further erosion in what watches bring if the buyers aren't buying or few care.

Doug

 

[rdixiemiller]

I just got the chance to start collecting some pocket watches when "She who must be obeyed" inherited a coin silver cased 7J Elgin from her fathers estate. Just a common 1887 lower range model, nothing fancy but the case. She gave it to me, and gave me permission to pick up a few, as long as they weren't "Stupid Expensive".
In my opinion, nice (common) pocket watches of the type I am interested in (1880's through 1920's American 18s) are quite reasonable right now. I have been E-Bay shopping, mainly looking at sellers who are NAWCC members.I am seeing running, serviced models in the $75 to $125 range. That is quite reasonable, considering a service is $100 in my area.
"She who must be obeyed" agreed that watch prices are reasonable.
Just my 2 cents worth, based on a 2 month sampling of prices on the internet.

 

[Clint Geller]

I just got the chance to start collecting some pocket watches when "She who must be obeyed" inherited a coin silver cased 7J Elgin from her fathers estate. Just a common 1887 lower range model, nothing fancy but the case. She gave it to me, and gave me permission to pick up a few, as long as they weren't "Stupid Expensive".
In my opinion, nice (common) pocket watches of the type I am interested in (1880's through 1920's American 18s) are quite reasonable right now. I have been E-Bay shopping, mainly looking at sellers who are NAWCC members.I am seeing running, serviced models in the $75 to $125 range. That is quite reasonable, considering a service is $100 in my area.
"She who must be obeyed" agreed that watch prices are reasonable.
Just my 2 cents worth, based on a 2 month sampling of prices on the internet.

The decline in early Howard and I believe, also high grade Waltham prices in the past decade has been dramatic, beginning with the financial crisis of 2007-8. In the past couple of years, the market has gotten even weaker despite the economic recovery. I see two reasons for this. The first is a very long-term adverse demographic trend in the pocket watch collecting hobby. When I began collecting around the time of my 30th birthday, I was definitely one of the youngest people in the hobby. Now 33 years later, I am still sort of one of the younger people in the hobby. And not only are there fewer collectors now, but as people either die off or leave the hobby, their sometimes voluminous collections hit an already struggling market. In particular, two very large collections have hit the market, at Bonham's and at Jones & Horan, in the past couple of years, and knocked the bottom out of it for certain kinds of watches, including early Howards. (Many folks here know the collections of which I speak.) While many of the items in both those collections had significant condition issues, many of the prices i saw for Howard divided plate keywind movements, some of which were in original cases, were nevertheless distressingly low.

I have said this before, but it bears repeating: The only good reason to own an antique watch is that you can't live without it. That is, the pleasure of owning it is worth the cost of the watch to you. If you ultimately make out financially too, that's great, but never spend a dollar on a watch that you can't afford to lose.

As for Buy-it-Now Ebay auctions with ridiculously high prices, some items keep getting relisted at the same stupid price literally for years. I always wondered whether some of them might just be cheap advertising for a retail store, since after six months just about any seller would know the watch was never going to sell at the price being asked. I occasionally look for coins on Ebay as well, and many coins listed therein are also listed separately in a seller's non-Ebay store, often at a lower price (since they aren't paying Ebay and Paypal fees there). I always check on this when I am interested in an item.

 

[John Cote]

As was said in the first post it is a buyers' market. Buy smart. Be price conscious but more than anything buy quality, condition and originality. When the supply is bigger than the demand what retains value is quality.

 

[musicguy]

Also it is the chase. Once you got what you were after, it may lose some of the appeal why
you bought it, but you may still look for another.

I also like the hunt. I could go out and buy almost any watch I want on ebay,
but I don't. I like to search through hundreds of watches and find just the ones
I want, at the prices I like. Since I don't sell any, it's not about appreciation of value.

As was said in the first post it is a buyers' market. Buy smart. Be price conscious but more than anything buy quality, condition and originality. When the supply is bigger than the demand what retains value is quality.

100% agree

Rob

 

[Clint Geller]

I also like the hunt. I could go out and buy almost any watch I want on ebay,
but I don't. I like to search through hundreds of watches and find just the ones
I want, at the prices I like. Since I don't sell any, it's not about appreciation of value.



100% agree

Rob

You know, Rob, I learned that it never hurts to sell a watch every once in a while, especially when you already have a nicer example, as a reality check and a calibration of one's own valuation and evaluation processes. Over the long haul, that tends to reduce one's "tuition" in the hobby. One sometimes learns things about a watch when one goes to sell it that one didn't realize when one bought it, or owned it. One of the two collectors I mentioned in my previous post never did that, and he appears to have paid a heavy price for that decision when he finally did decide to sell.

 

[musicguy]

You know, Rob, it never hurts to sell a watch every once in a while, especially when you already have a nicer example, as a reality check and a calibration of one's own valuation and evaluation processes. One sometimes learns things about a watch when one goes to sell it that one didn't realize when one bought it, or owned it. One of the two collectors I mentioned in my previous post never did that, and he appears to have paid a heavy price for that decision when he finally did decide to sell.

I have sold a duplicate or two(but my goal is not to buy to re sell at profit), I have also given more
than a few away(free). When I say I don't sell, I mean that it's very rare that I sell.
I also donate many broken and parts movements to my watch repairers.


Rob

 

[Clint Geller]

I have sold a duplicate or two(but my goal is not to buy to re sell at profit), I have also given more
than a few away. When I say I don't sell, I mean that it's very rare that I sell.


Rob

Understood, Rob. While I have brokered watches for many other collectors over the years, I have only seldom purchased a watch with the immediate intent to resell.

 

[MrRoundel]

When it comes to the price depreciation of common pocket watches, the writing has been on the wall for years. The sellers who keep their prices high because they bought their watches high, are just in a state of denial. Depending upon how much you spent, and for what, the losses can be hard to swallow. But eventually, if one needs to sell inventory, or wants to sell before prices drop more, they will have to let things go at a loss. It'll be a while, IMHO.

As to whether or not prices for the common stuff will come back, well, maybe, but it could be a generation or two forward of here. Time will tell, but until such a time comes, buy what you can afford, and don't buy anymore than you can admire.

I don't buy watches much these days, but when I see something that really strikes my fancy, I'll stretch to make a fair attempt at getting it. If I don't, I don't cry as hard as I used to, as I figure a better one, at a better price, may be just around the corner. It's a double-edged sword that they often are. Good luck all. Enjoy your time machines.

 

[musicguy]

All good points mentioned above.

as people either die off or leave the hobby, their sometimes voluminous
collections hit an already struggling market.

This made me think about this topic last night.
I have seen quite a lot of this type of bulk estate selling. So many estate buyers
sell everything as fast as they can. I have even purchased
a few nice watches from some of these collections.

One irony that I see, is that there are so many nice high end movements that
have been striped of their cases(orphan movements), and much of what is selling on eBay are
7 jewel watches(some in very nice cases) that people buy just to strip out the
lower quality movement to use for their orphan higher end movements. So you have scrapers and
collectors fighting for the last nice cases. These 7j watches in hunter(and open face) gold cases
really sell for a premium..............Then someone eventually in the future will scrap these cases.
Eventually there will be less, and less spare nice cases out there.

I am trying to get my sons(and wife) interested in PW's, and so far I think most
of my collection will not be dumped immediately(at bargain prices).
But, eventually I'm sure it will. And the cycle will begin again.


Rob

 

[ben_hutcherson]

I just have to stick my neck out and say that I don't see any shame in selling watches.

I've sold a lot over the years as my interests have changed or as I've acquired better examples.

More to the point, I've acquired watches with the intent to resell. To be honest, I'm not rich-far from it-and that's how I can afford to buy the pieces I want for my collection. If that makes me a "tainted" collector, so be it. When I sell watches, I do my best to be honest about their condition and sell them "warts and all" usually without doing anything more than a cleaning(if it needs it) and doing the basics that I do for watches in my own collection.

 

[Nathan Moore]

Rob - I believe you are correct in your original assessment and have some data to support it.

The attached chart is a compilation of the average end price for pocket watches from the four major American companies sold on eBay over the last 5 years. With the exception of Illinois, there is a slight year-over-year downward trend in the purchase price.

While this data dos not account for other sales venues, it should provide a fairly accurate representation of the trend that you identified.

 

[musicguy]

TimeAntiquarian great chart, I figured you were keeping track.

I just have to stick my neck out and say that I don't see any shame in selling watches.

And you shouldn't feel bad in any way.

Ben, Just so you know I don't think anyone here is too judgmental about selling. I have
some collections(that I've inherited that are not watches), and I sell this other "stuff" to buy watches
that I want. I try to make it a zero sum game. I'm sure their are collectors
of my other stuff(that I sell) that don't know why I'm selling that stuff.
I don't judge other people for selling watches/clocks that's great.



Rob

 

[dshumans]

I have been tracking one small segment, of all repeater and sonnerie pocket watch sales, for 10 years on eBay and the auction houses. In general, low end repeaters, including solid gold cases have gone down in the last 3 years after going up for 5 years. They are at about the prices of 6 years ago. High end brands, particularly Patek Philippe and genuine Breguet, Touchon, Granjean, have continued to go up substantially. A PP minute repeater that sold for $7K-8K 6 years ago now sells for $11K-16K depending on who is in the market that day. Musical sonnerie repeaters have gone down from $7K-9K or higher to $5K-$7K or so. Repeaters with calendar, including perpetual calendar, have gone down to about 2010 pricing. For example, a magnificent 18K English minute repeater with true perpetual calendar that was $16K-$20K in 2013 is now about $12K-$15K, depending on who is in the market that day. There are exceptions in that occasionally a good auction house auction will have competitive bidders and make high prices for many watches.
All this doesn't bother me because I have bought and sold these for many years and because it's fun to have them for a while and then sell them to get others. Over the years, I have made enough profit (after eBay & PayPal fees and IRS tax on profits) to pay for any future losses I could suffer selling my current collection, and still have the fun of owning them for a while. Plus, any losses can be deducted from profits on IRS collectible sales forms. It's all just an interesting hobby and has paid for itself. It would still be fun even if it didn't.

 

[GD1]

This is just a thought. One of the contributing factors is an ability to get watches cleaned or worked on by a reliable repairman at a reasonable price. Unless you can do it yourself, purchasing a watch that needs any work, and almost all need cleaning, factors into the price, at least to me. The days when your local watch repair guy would clean a watch for 20-25 bucks are long
gone.

 

[Dr. Jon]

I noticed the same thing Doug has.

I think a large part of this, especially for the complicated ones, is the renaissance in very high end mechanical watchmaking. The prices on older stuff have gone up but are a pittance compared to price of the ones in current production. The prices on teh modern stuff make teh rising prices of older ones look very modest.

That same renaissance has produced a new generation of buyers who appreciate these. It is not a lot of people but there is also not a lot of this stuff around.

 

[TJ Cornish]

I am on the young side of things (<40). I have had an interest since childhood, but have been more active in the last couple years. I have several modern mechanical watches, all of which need service to varying degrees. It is this cost of ownership that can sour the experience- I have a medium-high end watch that I expect to have to shell out about $1200 for a new crystal and an overhaul. I have a 7750-based watch that got dropped and has a broken calendar function that might be $300-$450. I have a couple ETA2824-based watches that need cleaning, the cost of which will be approximately the cost of buying a whole new movement.

Antique watches are reasonably affordable, but virtually every one for sale requires at least a cleaning, and as mentioned by someone above, paying $100 for a watch and then needing to send it in for $100+ worth of service is hard to swallow. I am accumulating tools now to attempt at least basic servicing. If I can get that far, that makes the hobby a lot more practical. Yesterday I just took delivery of a mainspring winder and staking set.

I just joined the NAWCC this year. I'm going to go to a local chapter meeting to see if I can find someone who will let me informally apprentice under them.

 

[johnbscott]

TJCornish, your strategy is entirely appropriate and highly commendable. I offer you every encouragement and I wish you good success. Self reliance is a great thing and its achievement doubles the satisfaction.

 

[rdixiemiller]

I am heading down that road as well. I have been a hobby gunsmith for years, so the basic principle of "Do no damage" is already understood.
Except for the small tools, my gun repair bench was almost perfect.
I have picked up a couple of inexpensive "runs for a few seconds then stops" Elgins from EBay to serve as my learning pieces.
For basic cleaning and oiling, it looks like $100 or so will get you the basic tools and supplies.

For me, the cleaning and resurrecting of a non working watch is the main attraction.

 

[Ethan Lipsig]

In my earlier post (#4), I recounted my experience selling this year's culls from my collection, reporting that I sold around 75% of these watches for more than I paid for them, but that I generally lost money taking servicing and sales costs into account. Here is what I netted from those sales this year:

Gains: $84, $69, $11, $306
Losses: $362, $648, $402, $287, $332, $209, $209, $86, $193, $120, $2, $87

The reason for this year's culls was to get rid of nearly all of my lowest-value watches (even though all were very nice and interesting watches in good running order) so as to avoid further servicing costs. All my servicing has to be done by professionals. I have no watchmaking skills and too many other interests to take the time to acquire them. Except for watches that are important to my collection, it makes no sense for me to own watches that aren't worth at least 4 times their anticipated servicing costs. Likewise, it almost never makes sense for me to buy a watch that isn't already in excellent condition because it is highly unlikely that I will recover my restoration expenses when I or my heirs sell the watch. In addition, it is increasingly difficult to find replacement parts, such as mainspring, or excellent watchmakers willing to work on old watches.

The percentage of collectors who share my sentiments must be slowly growing. If so, rising servicing/restoration costs and frustrations inevitably lessen the demand for nearly all pocket watches -- most aren't worth much. Lessened demand translates into lower values.

 

[Dr. Jon]

I am much in ine with Ethan's views. I distinguish between working watches such as railroads and fancy luxury and precision watches. I will happily own and service or have services a great railraod watch with a movement in very good condition but in a beaten up case. Any hint of unrepairable botchwork and I lose all interst in it.

Precision watches I expect to be in very very good shape. There is not acceptable reason for damage to tehse watches. They were intended for people who would use them carefully an dhad the measn to have them serviced regularly and properly.

If I intend to wear a watch a lot I either service it my self or have it done professionally by people I know and trust. because i can do the simple stuff and even make some easy parts, when I get one service I expect to pay a lot. If it were easy, I would do it myself.

I usually buy watch in good enough shape that I can wear it for a short time as I received, although I usually do a bit of lubrication of the balance and escapement. I test it on either timing machine or looks at its acoustic trace. It is runs with good motion decent rates and has a clean crisp trace I believe it is Ok to wear it for a few weeks.

Watch pries are a bit like sea level. Not really precise.

I have beena few auctions with something like 50 992's. They were in random order to I looked at the ones near teh end of teh sael and found some nice ones. As usual, the first ones went high and them the prices dropped and I got one for a very low price.

I also try to spot collector foibles. A few years ago 920's and 922's in gold were selling very cheap, at last in my view. I knew tha godl 920's sold new for more than gold 950 which were very dear when iw as buying 920's and 922's.

When the book on Sangamo Specials came out, I decided I wanted some true center bridge versions with diamond end stones. It was a few months afetr I got the book and bought them for a lot less than they go for now.

If you buy carefully, for value, know how to look at a watch, avoid fads and buy stuff you understand and find interesting you will always do OK.

 

[kevinstang]

Relative newbie myself to watches, maybe about last 7 to 8 years collecting them and now learning to repair them. Made a lot of mistakes buying watches early on-frankensteins and low end ones. I remember early on meeting an old watch collector who told me nothing under 17 jewels was really worth fixing, thought that was a rather snobbish remark at the time. I realize now the point he was trying to make. I've moved up to collecting mostly old railroad watches in 16 sizes as their practical carry pieces and can keep great time. I also had one great grandfather who worked all his life for the NYC railroad, wish I had one of his watches, unfortunately not. I've gotten to the point where I can clean and oil, change mainsprings and even jewels if I can find replacements. I've learned to appreciate having a few damaged watches around for spare parts - so I always look on ebay for broken movements too. Up until a year ago I had a local watch repairman who could fix staffs and do other work for me, but he has since discontinued his business, which makes me more selective on which watches I buy and what I pay for them. Its nice every once and a while to try and save one that might just need something simple.I'm lucky to have a lot of old order Amish in my area who look for mechanical wind pocket watches, so I have been able to thin down my collection of early buying mistakes (well not really mistakes) as they like 12s size watches and are happy to buy 7 and 15 jewel watches in that size if priced right.

"This is just a thought. One of the contributing factors is an ability to get watches cleaned or worked on by a reliable repairman at a reasonable price. Unless you can do it yourself, purchasing a watch that needs any work, and almost all need cleaning, factors into the price, at least to me. The days when your local watch repair guy would clean a watch for 20-25 bucks are long
gone." as taken from above post I think really sums it up.

I've tried to get local youths interested in learning about watches and even told some they should look into schooling for it, but most seem more interested in their phones or going to college and not working with their hands. I know the last local guy I had always had more work than he could handle- I think that's why he scaled back and closed his business for now.

 

[179]

A question, with skilled labor having an hourly rate of 40-75+ dollars per hour, what would be a proper rate for a skilled watchmaker ?

 

[Dr. Jon]

When I took one of the NAWCC courses over ten years ago the instructor told us the rate is $100 per hour at the bench and that is rate rate at the shop I know best.

A Rolex certified watchmaker with a parts account can do four a day at a wholesale rate (what the reparer gets paid) of $350 each. A person with these credentials can do at most two railroad watches in a day and only if they do not need any special attention. That is what you are competing against when you want your old pocket watch repaired or cleaned lubed and adjusted.

When I was in Dresden, Germany I spoke about this with a local antique watch dealer. He told me American watches take so much time noone of his repair people will touch them. American watches seem easy to repair and they are far from teh most difficut and there are a lot of parts around. Most of tehse parts do not fit all that well and relacement almost always takes a long time.

If this is a hobby, and you have the time, it is sort of fun once you get the thing working right, and a lot of satisfaction, but it is expensive if you are making your living at this. In that time the repair person could have made over $1400 on a Rolex or comparable wrist watch repair. Modern watches are designed to be a lot easier and faster to clean, lube, and adjust and the pay for doing this is good.

New mainsprings are about $50 and this does not count the time it takes to measure, order, receive, and check out a new one.

A lot of easy jobs take a long time so it is very much worth learning how to do them but if you want professional service you have to pay enough to enable people who do this to make a living at it.

 

[musicguy]

Hey TimeAntiquarian you posted a great chart on pocket watch prices over time(earlier in this thread), can you
post a chart for American watch sales. Your "Value" chart shows how Hamilton watches have held their value
better than some of the other American companies. But that seems like only part of the story.
Without understanding sales volume, it's harder to interpret the numbers.

Which American watch companies have the highest annual sales volume(on ebay)
over the past 5 years. Has the total amount of watches sold per year(per company) declined
like prices have, or have they held steady. Hypothetically, if Elgin sells 4 times the watches
per year vs Hamilton(but has an average lower price) it still may hold some of it's value
in it's higher grade watches. Hamilton doesn't have close to the number of low grade
watches like Elgin and Waltham had.


Thanks
Rob

 

[Nathan Moore]

Which American watch companies have the highest annual sales volume(on ebay)
over the past 5 years. Has the total amount of watches sold per year(per company) declined
like prices have, or have they held steady. Hypothetically, if Elgin sells 4 times the watches
per year vs Hamilton(but has an average lower price) it still may hold some of it's value
in it's higher grade watches. Hamilton doesn't have close to the number of low grade
watches like Elgin and Waltham had.

Rob - Certainly. Here is a chart that reflects the annual sales volume for each watch company on the auction site since 2013. Please note that the 2017 numbers will obviously continue to rise until the end of the year.

Logically, this chart should generally represent the relative production volume for each company, and the primary insight is how the sales activity varied from year to year. Simply put, Elgin produced more watches than Illinois, so the modern-day sales volume will, in turn, reflect this disparity. The change from year to year may indicate the general interest in purchasing or selling watches on the auction site.

The previous chart represents the average prices realized over time, and the volume would simply give context into the size of the sample data for each company, yielding more accurate results. The average price realized for a Hamilton is higher than Elgin for the reasons you mentioned. However, it cannot be inferred that either company has retained value better than the other since both have declined at roughly the same rate year-over-year.

It should be noted that this data is only compiled from a single auction source, and then only included in these charts when the manufacturer can be systematically recognized from the listing. (The data existing outside these parameters should be considered in context when analyzing this chart).

 

[Nathan Moore]

Hypothetically, if Elgin sells 4 times the watches
per year vs Hamilton(but has an average lower price) it still may hold some of it's value
in it's higher grade watches. Hamilton doesn't have close to the number of low grade
watches like Elgin and Waltham had.

In response to your direct hypothesis, here is a chart that represents the average price realized for watches that were recognized as 21+ jewels. This supports your theory that the subset of higher grade watches have retained value better than the collective pool, which has generally declined over this timespan.

 

[musicguy]

Thanks, very interesting.



Rob

 

[grtnev]

...and the hits just keep on coming.

Very nice (IMHO) 23j, Waltham Model 1899, Vanguard grade recently sold online auction for $175 and that was with 28 bids via10 bidders. Only thing that I noted was that there was one small hairline on the dial. Other than that, the watch was in good running condition - gold filled case still nice - no brassing, movement very clean, gold inlay looked good....yet it couldn't break the $200 barrier.

Also a recased Illinois 17j 18s, Model 5, Grade Bunn with the 1st circular damaskeen pattern only brought $51. Granted, the hunter movement had been recased into a much later open face case. There was some damage to the dial and the watch obviously needed service. However, the 8 bidders involved were only able to barely break the $50 mark.

 

[musicguy]

I was just curious how many "brand new" pocket watches were selling on ebay
everyday to help me judge the overall demand for pocket watches .
It seems the demand is fairly high for Chinese quartz Theme watches. The ebay sold listings for the past 3 months is
quite high(and I'm sure much higher during the Holiday season).

In any one day ebay has between 50,000 and 100,000
total pocket watches(of all types) for sale. And, as said above large vintage watch collections seem to keep
popping up for sale in bulk. So, I believe that pocket watches in general
are selling well(if you look at total Pocket Watches sold every day), but the market is so
diluted and obviously demand has dropped
in certain areas. A vintage watch collector selling one of their watches want's to get what they
think it's worth, the estate seller(and ebay opportunist) just seem to want to get anything someone is willing to pay.
Plus we know that just between Waltham and Elgin they made about 100 million watches

I was selling a few things at a NAWCC Mart and a woman came up to my table and said,
"those are beautiful pocket watches I just bought my husband one of those". I said, "great
what did you get him". It turned out to be a vintage looking Chinese Theme watch.

I was in a modern watch store 2 weeks ago and I was talking to the salesman
about vintage pocket watches and he said I just bought one of those for my Fathers
75 birthday. I said, "great what did you get him". Turned out to be another Chinese vintage theme pocket watch.

I think this might good because it keeps pocket watches out there
for the general public. Hopefully some will decide to get a Mechanical one too.
But, quite frustrating sometimes too.


Rob

 

[musicguy]

Is there something about this watch that I'm missing
(completed listing)
ELGIN 18S LARGE NICKEL POCKET WATCH LOOKS GOOD RUS NO RESERVE | eBay
This watch had 23 watchers, 17 bids, 9 bidders
531,800 of this 7j Elgin were made. This one in a Nickle case.

I know it didn't sell for a tremendous amount, but I'm still surprised
what it sold for and the attention it received. Almost all he bidders
were long time experienced Ebayers(based on their feedback rating)

Maybe this is a good sign.

Rob

 

[Steven Thornberry]

It looks to be lever set, and the seller says it winds and sets, but where is the lever? What do I not know?

 

[musicguy]

The one I've linked to is pendent set.


Rob

 

[Steven Thornberry]

Ok.. But Interesting. The one I see has a cutout for a lever. Perhaps a multi-purpose watch case.

 

[George Frick]

I just want to comment about the number of people who follow or watch a high priced BIN pocket watch on the big auction site. I followed all the high BIN Rockford 900's at that site. I had no intentions of purchasing one of those. I was inerested in the different markings on the movement, some had RG, some had 900, some were unmarked. I think the regulator changes also. It was an educational tool that helped me determine what model i wanted. I found one at 1/2 the price of those BIN watches. I am new at this and education and planning is key for me.

 

[musicguy]

George
I do look at the "Buy it now" auctions but unless the price is good
I wont buy from them unless they have a "best offer" option.
Almost always you can buy the same watches for much less.


Rob

 

[George Frick]

Rob, it IS a great time to be a buyer. This year i also picked up a nice South Bend 329. Will i ever recoup all i have spent?
No, but i don't expect to take a bath either. I collect for the pleasure and joy of holding a great pocket watch.

 

[musicguy]

I'm a collector but not someone who services their own watches. Even
though I can take a watch apart there is a difference between me
and someone who is good at it.
So it sometimes costs me as much to
have a watch serviced as what I paid for the watch.
I've been very lucky with the prices I've paid
but after service costs (and new crystals and cases sometimes)
I would not call this a great investment.
We do it because we like it.


Rob

 

[George Frick]

Rob, i cannot service my own. I have it done. I want to preserve the good ones i have. Congratulations on your very nice 19j that you picked up at Convention.
I really like the dial.

 

[James Foster]

I inherited 285 pocket watches 14 years ago. My father bought, sold and traded American pocket watches starting in the 1950’s. There was all the hot collector stuff under 24 jewel. He had pretty much stopped adding to the collection by 1990. There were early KWKS up to the military Hamilton, Waltham and Elgin and examples of everything in between. He had a card file database including serial numbers of movement, s/n of case & material or guarantee, grade, model, special marking, dial info, etc., plus what he paid or the value of what he traded and with whom. I always thought they might be my retirement.

In 2015 I created a excel database of all the watches. I listed the three prices in the complete price guide of watches. In 2017 I added three columns for the new prices. There were exceptions but totaling all the columns the 2017 prices were 10% lower.

I pulled my favorites, The 4992 my dad carried, Elgin doctor’s watch because I think the sweep second hand is cool and some graduation and Christmas present stock. I’m not a wheeler/dealer. The rest went to Jones-Horan. I’m afraid to analyze the realized prices as a percentage decline. It would only make me unhappy.

I’m in the clock and watch restoration business. I kept 250 clocks until my memories are worth more to me than the market value and I wasn’t interested to see how low pocket watch prices could go. My point is I had no desire to possess 285 watches and I like horological items. What about all the other collectors from his generation that had amassed 3 to 5 hundred RR watches as they die and their heirs that haven’t pulled the trigger and cut their losses.

There may very well be a continuing demand for beautiful watches for art, jewelry or gold value. The first watch made of a manufacturer and the most expensive of the most expensive will hold their value. I guess people in those income brackets will always have money and need something to spend it on. But I believe the supply will likely exceed the demand for watches that are “rare” or desirable based on criteria that is no longer relevant, like precision. Mechanical precision is more a novelity than a necessity. I think there will be less and less difference in value between a nothing special 23j Elgin and a Ilinois Ball just like the value associated with a wind-up indicator. That’s just my opinion and my perspective.

Jim