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Any #5 clock key should do, but there are Chelsea keys and reproduction Chelsea keys available from your auction site.
The latter part...
That sounds like an accurate diagnosis. Persistent use of an oversized key is a very effective means of creating a round arbor.
Odd. The winding arbors appear to be of different sizes.
Beautiful clock! The model is the "Wardroom."
See one that sold in 2013 here: Seth Thomas Wardroom Model Ship's Bell Clock | Sale Number 2652M,...
It's an informative website.
"This section explores how farmers and commoners of the Edo Period (1603 and 1868) managed time.
Chimes of bell...
That's curious, JTD.
They had responded promptly to my 14/2/2020 inquiry in an email dated 17/2/2020.
I had not noted it then, but he Seiko...
A round wooden plaque of the appropriate size, a wooden base, and a couple of metal shelf brackets is an easy and cheap alternative.
You may wish to email inquiries to the Seiko Museum in Tokyo (Seiko History | THE SEIKO MUSEUM)
with images of your clock and any other pertinent...
Soon, "they" will be banning lead paint for clock cabinets and radium for dials!