Prices trending Up or Down?

[BCMontana]

Following eBay, and a few other private sales, it seems to me that a lot of watches are not fetching as much as they were just a few months ago. However, I don't have a long-term perspective.

Do you think prices in general are trending down at this time?

Do prices tend to fall in any summer, or maybe it's just this summer with the economy in the shape it's in.

Is there a better time of year in general to buy watches, and conversely, sell watches?

Thanks,

Scott

[Lorne]

I don't know about prices are trending, but I do know that the number of Waltham items on Ebay normally hung around 600. Over the last few months that number is up to 700/800. That could have the effect of lowering prices. I suspect people are selling off what they no longer want/need to create some liquid cash.

Lorne

[Jeff Hess]

Now is the BEST time to buy.

This past three months have been bargain time on the "worlds largest auction site". I have bought BAll watches (some rather rare) for peanuts.

Now is the time to buy income property too.

And collectable cars.

But.

Most will not listen. When prices are low people do not buy. I have seenthis time and time again over the years.

When prices are climbing people keep buying. Higher and higher. feeding a frnzy until the bubble bursts. And then when the bubble bursts, people quit buying. And that is the PERFECT time to buy.

Human nature I guess.
Jeff Hess, onemans opinion

[gmeyer4]

The watches I look for are generally not down. These are watches that are a little out of the ordinary or lower production watches. The lower end watches and the ones in less that average condition appear to be down but the average and above average grades and conditions appear to be holding their value. Of course Walthams and Elgins are in such supply that the low demand has these prices dropping.

Not a single bit of data to back this up, just an observation.

[49stude63]

I would have to say that for the most part prices are down, and it is a good time to buy. There are always flukes on ebay, I saw a Elgin grade 361 movement go for ~$425 (no case) then I just bought a grade 361 for $150 in a salesman case. I have picked up nice 21/23J versions of Hampdens for 240 and under, both in nice gold cases (no brassing, no dents or dings) and a nice 23J 16s Veritas for well below what they typically sold for un the last 5-9 years. I stopped buying watches for several years because the prices from 2001 on were escalating worse than the stock market and home prices, as both of these segments bubbled and busted the same trend seems to have applied itself to pocket watches. I have been buying and getting some very nice watches for very decent prices. When what I am paying is less than the prices listed in my 2000 Shugart's price guide then I feel ok with the prices.

[John Cote]

Following eBay, and a few other private sales, it seems to me that a lot of watches are not fetching as much as they were just a few months ago. However, I don't have a long-term perspective.


Scott,

This is my opinion only.

In good economic times, when lots of people have money, more people have disposable income/money and more people can become collectors. In good economic times these new or sometimes collectors want to buy. Prices of nice average goods goes up with the demand. Nice but plentiful watches like good railroads...Hamilton 992s, 992bs, 950s, 950bs, Illinois Bunns and Bunn Specials, Common 16 and 18s Balls etc (especially nice examples) start to fetch a lot of money. This is common high production stuff with an almost inexhaustable supply but when demand goes up so do prices. This is why we see 16s Bunn Specials with production numbers in the thousands going for 3 grand or more.

When times get hard and the money supply dries up not as many people are collectors and demand goes down. The first goods to suffer are the common goods like railroads. If you bought them at the highs they are not worth what you paid for them. If you have to sell someone is going to get a better deal than you did. Lots of people hang on and wait for the market to go up again. The last time it got this bad the market took 20 years or so to come back. People who buy at the high are not making good investments.

On the other hand, rare goods rarely suffer. Early American rarities will bring the big bucks even in bad times. When there are only a couple of Custers or Warrens or whatever, there will always be some real collector with money who will pay.

Right now it seems as though times are not so bad that most people need to dump their goods. Not enough people are ready to sell at a loss. But as has been said above, eBay market prices do reflect slackened demand. Good but common stuff like even the Illinois Balls are down by 40% or more from their highs. They do not sell at "Buy it Now" old prices.

[Jon Hanson]

Knowledge is KING, not just for condition, originality, rarity, etc. but also for VALUE! Too many folks do not know what they should buy, nor what to pay for what they buy. Many of these folks get sold a BILL OF GOODS by DEALERS and fast buck artists; plus, the absurd............."INVESTMENT QUALITY" tout!

Then, in "good times," there is the speculative aspect. I know one fella that has 400 992b Hamiltons. One dealer once had 200 of these Hamiltons in order to be able to fill demand in the rising market for these ultra common watches!

Most of the above newbies never graduate from what they are doing because they do not know what they are doing due to BAD ADVICE! Add up the bad advice and you get a suckers market that erodes when the suckers run out. This can be for the entire hobby or certain series as discused by John Cote above.

I daily get phone calls from collectors trying to refine their collcting skills!

[49stude63]

I have to agree with Jon and John, I really don't see wind indicators or other highly collectable watches dropping that much in prices but the more common 992's and Elgin 57X BWR's being much lower. I have strayed a bit from my typical low production 17J models that I always tended to buy because of the past demand for 21-23J RR watches. So for me picking up some higher grade low production watches and some nice watches that are higher grade but a bit more common has been a side benefit of the current market. When one can pick up nice low poduction (5K or less) or the ones that fall into the 5-10K models for a lot less than they typically sold for, it is a pleasure. In the past I would limit how much I would spend for a single watch so finding nice ones in that price range was much harder, now even staying in that same range much more good watches are available which allows for a bit of "cherry picking".

[ckeithjohnson]

From my own personal experience I have had very good luck selling common stuff, watches,silver, coins,early american weapons at Flea markets at better prices than Ebay. There are people cruising flea markets with money to spend and shunning the stock market and CDs. They want hard goods to invest in that are out of production. If you are contemplating selling ,mark your stuff up and give it a try.

[Robert Smothers]

It would be my opinion that prices are heading downward. We have in some cases seen prices decline as much as 40% on some models as John C mentioned above. Rare items are off but less than common items.

Jon hit the nail on the head when he stated knowledge has great influence on price at the market place. Knowledge leads to good buys in any type of market situations. No market is perfect, and the watch market is about as imperfect as any market that I know of. A knowledgeble seller has an advantage over a unkowledgeble buyer. A knowledgeble buyer has an advantage over an unknowledgeble seller. An open market such as Ebay is about as good of an indicator of the watch market as any, as knowledgeble buyers and sellers in large numbers use this market.

Some watch groups have bigger demand than others, all factors considered. In the past I have heard some collectors complain because rare items did not bring a price that refected the rarity of the item. This is usually because they compared the item to another item that brought more although common according to production. Do not forget personal preference, some like Model T's, and some like Corvettes. Areas with the most beginner participation often push demand beyond supply on the short term(impatience). Earlier watches that require much study, or because of lack of information can have eradic sales which are off the charts in both directions. I think demand for certain watches over other watches is directly correlated to the detail information available on each, or the lack of information. Collectors cannot want what they do not know about.

Last year I found a number of collectable watches at good prices. They seemed to be cheaper than years earlier. This year I have found even more watches at bargin prices, as prices are now even cheaper. I expect some top collectables to hit the market due to tuff economic times. It will be interesting to see what they bring....Robert

PS...it would be hard to sell me a wood burner in any market...RS

[Larry S]

Oh Jeff, I listen and I know, but my bank account tells a different story in these tough economic times. Would you be willing to donate to my horology fund so I can snag some deals??:D:)

Larry

Now is the BEST time to buy.

But.

Most will not listen. When prices are low people do not buy. I have seenthis time and time again over the years.


Jeff Hess, onemans opinion

[John Pavlik]

So....was this a deal ????

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&ssPageName=STRK:MEWAX:IT&item=130316389654

[Jon Hanson]

for the seller :eek:

[s. smith]

It,s a buyer market for sure i have got some great deals lately on ebay.:)

[Jon Hanson]

Therer are always buys--you just have to find them!:D

[Kim G.]

Saturday
July 11, 2009


Reading the comment by Jeff Hess, "Now is the time to buy income property too" reminds me of a comment Donald Trump once said: "The best time to buy property is in a bad market".

My Dad is a Real Estate Broker and Investor and a while back he started to stress out about how bad the market was looking, which in his opinion, was the worst he has seen in 40 years. I told him what Donald Trump had said, and he looked at me like "Wow, I never thought of it that way". The subject hasn't been brought up since!


Kim Gerard
NAWCC Member #0169537

[BCMontana]

Yes, I am thinking about the medium grade, common watches. What got me going on this was the fact that I have a couple Waltham 620 watches. I bought them cheap a few months ago because they were not working, and now that I have fixed them, I was looking to sell. The guide says they should be worth $100, but I am seeing Waltham 620s go for as low as $38, with the average around $60!

I know we're not talking about a rare or high grade watch here, but it seems that working Waltham 15-17j 16s watch ought to fetch more than $60!

What really fascinates me right now, are old watches from the 1850's - 1880's, and there seem to be some good buys on these right now.

Like Larry, I don't have enough money in my horology account to buy the really nice watches at this time. I was hoping to make $30-$40 each restoring the common ones to build up the account, but the sagging sales figures from these models is thwarting my attempts!

Thanks for all your opinions!

Scott

[49stude63]

Scott it was a few months ago that I bought an Elgin grade 342 16s 17j LS in a platold case for $70 in good working order. I have found more than a few good watches in the 50-150 price range and not just common watches but some like the Elgins 342 (5000made), 361 (1000made) and not much over 150 I have purchased grades 348, 149 and a 270, South Bend 294. If you pitch them right you might get better than you think but some of that depends on luck and the right bidders but for the most part as a seller you will see lower end bids. I have seen people that appear to be selling off collections, more multiple watch auctions than usual (again a sign of collection sell off). I sold some of my watch repair equipment a few months ago and did well but that seems to be a result of new people wanting to repair watches and a few collectors from overseas. I think most that have responded are seeing the same trend that I stated, which seems to indicate that it is a buyer's market now, not a seller's market. As I stated earlier with an example of of an Elgin grade 361 movement selling for $420+ and the example of the watch selling for 2000+ but those tend to be flukes rather than the general trend.

[Tom Huber]

Scott, Take the entire price guide with a grain of salt. I was at NAWCC National convention sevral weeks ago, you could have bought many working common grade Elgins and Walthams for well undr $50. Non working common grades were on tables for $30 or less.

The value of any item is only what a willing buyer will pay. Throw out the price guide. The true value of your watches is what one will pay. You now have the idea of what that is from watching e-bay.

Tom

[Jon Hanson]

Selling anything takes a willing buyer and a willing seller.:o

The PG is just a guide and the prices reflect one person's opinion--there is NO BASE NOR SUPPORT LEVEL as a result of the PG! ;):}

[49stude63]

I picked up an Elgin 18s model 8 3/4 plate LS 21J BWR in good shape for $135 so you know prices are trending downwards, production on this watch was less than 5000 and I can remember when these models used to get near what the price guide suggested, which was between 250-425.

[Jon Hanson]

This is a good example of how of the Bible is!

But, what is the condition of the dial and the case? Is it original?

[49stude63]

The DS dial has some minor chipping near the center post, no hairlines, some slight brassing on the gold case and the movement is in good condition with some minor repair marks, little to no corrosion. That is why I don't purchase a new Shugart's, I am still using the 2000 version and they list it $225/275/425. I have some older full plate Elgin 18s 21j models but none of the newer 3/4 plate models so for the price it was a good pick up for me.

[Jon Hanson]

I guess you forgot to deduct for the dial damage and case with brass!:eek:

[Bryan Eyring]

I guess you forgot to deduct for the dial damage and case with brass!:eek:


the OLD adage - ALWAYS buyt the BEST you can afford!!

[HUDD]

Buy the watches you like, common or not. That way you will not be dissapointed.

Hudd

[49stude63]

Hudd I have to agree, normally with Elgin 3/4 plate models they typically are marked Veritas or Father Time and BWR's tend to be seen less often but that is not the case for the full plate 18 size grades. I think Shugart's "fair" rating does include some hairlines, and some minor brassing on the case so picking this one up at 60% "fair" value in a 2000 Shugart price guide still tells me prices are depressed. I could have waited for a 200-300 pristine example but they don't show up often.

[BCMontana]

The consensus I am hearing is that most of you feel prices are declining at this time. That agrees with my hunch.

Then I see something like this movement on a recently ended eBay auction:
http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&ssPageName=STRK:MEWAX:IT&item=360169526730

What am I missing here? This is a very nice movement, but over $400?:eek: This seems like an inflated price, which is even more confusing if we are in the middle of a deflated market. Yeah, I would have loved to have that movement, but not at that price.

Really, if there is something very much more rare about this movement, I would truly like to know. I have been on the lookout for a nice 12s higher-jeweled Waltham. Did this one fetch a high price because it is a highly jeweled movement from 1898? It gets two stars, but only a suggested price of $200-$300 with a GF case!

Thanks,

Scott

[Jerry Treiman]

Scott - that 21 jewel bridge model is the "American Watch Co." grade and was Waltham's best movement. The 12-size version has long been undervalued in the price guide. There were probably fewer than 2000 made. It has probably been recently liberated from a nice gold case.

[BCMontana]

Scott - that 21 jewel bridge model is the "American Watch Co." grade and was Waltham's best movement. The 12-size version has long been undervalued in the price guide. There were probably fewer than 2000 made. It has probably been recently liberated from a nice gold case.

Thank you, that is great information. The errors, omissions, and over- and under-valuations in the guide have been pointed out quite a bit. It is still useful as a guide, but I like learning where the guide falls short.

The movement certainly caught my eye, with the 3-finger bridge and 21 jewels, but I had no idea it would go for so much, especially "liberated" from its case!

Thanks for the continuing education,

Scott

[49stude63]

Now Scott keep your eyes open for another movement of the same grade! The reason I say that is about 2-3 months ago there was an Elgin grade 361 movement that sold on Ebay for almost $425 and in the next few months afterwards 2-3 more ended up on Ebay and I bought one for ~$150 and the other sold for ~$185 (wrong winding wheels). There were only 1000 made of the grade 361 so I was really surprised to see them falling out of the woodwork.

[Fred Hansen]

Actually the Elgin 361 movement a few months ago brought just over $448 ... I remember well since I was the seller ... :)

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=270382758529

I wasn't expecting that price but it was a very sharp looking movement in terms of the surface condition of the plates, winding wheels, etc. and the buyer was quite pleased with it.

Fred

[49stude63]

LOL sorry Fred, I couldn't find the auction but I knew it was over $400 which surprised me as much since I thought about bidding on it. Heck I thought about tossing my first 361 up if it would would get that price. They are nice looking movements which is why I don't mind having two of them now.

[Veritas]

Hi Fred, the movement you sold is quite nice but i would have never imagined it reaching what it did.To my untrained eye it looks not much different than other Raymonds, but it was limited in production. A nice movement and i like all Raymonds overall.

[49stude63]

The 361(17J), the 360(21J) and the 350(23J) were all the same family, very unique models (ONC6) and each of them were only made in one run of 1000. The 350 was made first ~1906-1907, the 360 a bit later 1907 and the 361 in 1908 no other models of this type were made and no other runs. Probably of the 3 you don't see the 360 as often, then a toss up between the 350 and 361 but usually the 350 ends up in the 500-1000 dollar range.